The Future of Regions is being developed to expand upon the work that Future iQ currently undertakes in our various strategic planning and foresight projects. It examines a range of critical catalysts of change for regions in North America and the impacts of that change on how regions are organized and function. Having worked in regions and communities across North America, Europe and Australia for over a decade, it is an exciting challenge to extend the practical development of future thinking into a research piece that looks at real world trends and examples of applied innovative practices. This document is one of a series of foresight papers developed by Future iQ.
Regions are one of the fundamental building blocks of our future social and economic fabric. It is well documented that our global population will grow and become progressively urbanized. Cities will continue to grow and house larger and larger percentages of the world’s population. The concentration of population in the cities will drive demand for products and goods, materials, and resources. The Future of Regions examines the communities and townships outside the intensely urbanized areas. These areas are close enough to a central city to access all of the core services and amenities offered in urban areas but still retain their rural character.
The future economies and roles of these areas is likely to be more and more influenced by their proximity to urban centers, their role in regional labor markets, and the quantity and quality of their natural resources such as water, soil and energy. This trend will continue as urbanization increases and competition for raw materials and natural resources becomes more acute.
In addition, regional areas in close proximity to large cities will have greater importance as locations for the assembly, processing and distribution of materials into goods and products servicing the urban demands. This trend has already been observed in the steady development of manufacturing facilities in new sites in suburban communities and the urban fringe. In addition, these close proximity areas will present important locations for recycling and reprocessing used goods and waste material from large population centers. These trends may drive both innovation within these regions and increase pressure on the local environmental conditions. The challenge will be ensuring such areas do not become industrial and ecological dumping grounds that are the often-unacknowledged hidden side of large metropolises. These close proximity zones have an opportunity to morph into innovation centers in strong mutual symbiosis with the large cities and provide critical connecting roles between resource providers and resource consumers.
Regional areas that lay further away from the large population centers, including the predominantly rural areas, may experience continuing depopulation as residents, youth particularly, migrate to cities and urban fringe areas closer to the main economic centers. Some of these outlying regional areas, with abundant natural resources are likely to become even more important key food and material producing locations. Sustaining a viable population scale will be a critical determinant for the future of these regional spaces. Technology is liable to continue to drive larger farming and resource operations with lower labor requirements, potentially exacerbating the population loss. This creates a significant challenge as population and economic scale traditionally determine provision of basic amenities and infrastructure, upon which viable regional communities and economies are built. Innovative and collaborative strategies will be required to halt or reverse population decline and instead create new agile models of regional reciprocity.
Regions also often contain one or more significant natural or cultural destinations that contribute meaningfully to the regional economy by attracting visitors from outside the region. These natural and cultural resources also serve as important recreational outlets; yet, they can experience threats from overuse and environmental degradation. As urban populations grow and rural populations shrink, the relationship between rural areas and large cities will lead to more complex policy and social responses to ensure long-term health of and public access to these regional assets.
The Future of Regions is based on scientific research and trend information. We have endeavored to draw research from various areas into one engaging thought piece. Macro trends such as declining supplies of fossil fuels, impacts of climate change, technological advancement and dependence, and escalating global populations create greater levels of uncertainty. However, embedded in these changes are new opportunities. Renewable energy, local and high value food systems, and materials reclamation offer potential new economic pathways. Increased global demand for food and processed goods will create new demands and opportunities for resource rich regions. Technology could fundamentally alter how educational, health and social services are delivered, removing the barriers to access even in relatively remote locations. Changes in the way we live and work will further shape regions and how we interact with them.
In addition to research and trend information, The Future of Regions looks to different regions across the globe as case studies of places responding to a variety of threats. These regions acknowledge the potential of planning for the future and the value of foresight for protecting their assets and rethinking how the region can function for a healthy social, economic and environmental future.
This information is presented to encourage people to explore how various trends could play out and to consider the potential real world implications and possibilities. Our focus is primarily on presenting a thoughtful examination of the potential future of regions, comprising economic, social and ecological perspectives. This publication will be offered as a resource, for people to consider what may be possible in their own regions, as they explore the challenges and opportunities in the next 20 years.
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